Why Conference Realignment Doesn’t Benefit the New Guy

Rumors have emerged today that USC and UCLA are days away from becoming members of the Big 10. A deal already agreed upon would send the two Southern California programs to a conference that has been represented in six of eight college football playoffs. This is off the heals of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joining the Big 12 as incumbent Big 12 members Texas and Oklahoma will be heading to the SEC.

This is not the first time the SEC has plucked programs from the Big 12 as Texas A&M and Missouri joined the SEC in 2012. Also throughout the early 2010s, the Mountain West absorbed several WAC programs as the conference was dying out. Eventually WAC programs Boise St, Fresno St, Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose State and Utah St became members of the Mountain West. They did this as Utah and TCU left the Mountain West for the Pac-12 and Big 12 respectively. Also Colorado and Nebraska left the Big 12 for the Pac-12 and Big 10 respectively. A lot of change for little success.

None of these teams have qualified for a college football playoff spot or a BCS National Title Birth since their move. Missouri played in two SEC championship games but lost both by double digits, Texas A&M has never played in an SEC Championship game. Nebraska has played in one Big 10 Championship game which they lost by 39. Colorado has played in one Pac-12 Championship game which they lost by 31. Utah has played in 4 Pac-12 title games, finally winning the conference in 2021. They lost to Ohio State in an epic Rose Bowl matchup. TCU has played in one Big 12 Championship game which they lost but they do have a Big 12 Championship, a shared title with Baylor from the 2014 season. Both Baylor and TCU missed out on the CFB due to a lack of a championship game.

Utah and TCU from the Mountain West and Boise St and Hawaii from the WAC are four of the non P5 teams to make a BCS birth in the BCS era. Utah, TCU and Boise St have won BCS bowl games and TCU played Boise in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. However since the Mountain West expanded, only Boise State has played in a BCS/ NY6 bowl game and they did that only once.

Now Oklahoma, Texas, USC and UCLA are headed to conferences with better defenses and higher quality of competition. There is a reason Buckeye fans get nervous when they play Purdue, there’s a reason Texas A&M partied hard when they beat Alabama, conference realignment does not benefit the team realigning. Sure there’s more money in play but that also means the incumbent members make more money as well. The gap is hard to close. If you want to make the CFB, designing a more difficult road is not the answer.